The scientists created a model using artificial intelligence and machine learning that can predict dengue outbreaks more than two months in advance.
Dengue infections and deaths increase
when temperatures go above 27 degrees Celsius and rainfall is moderate and
spread out over a period, according to a new study.
The study also reveals very heavy
rainfall (more than 150 mm in a week) can wash away mosquito eggs and larvae,
lowering the risk of dengue.
Researchers Sophia Yacob and Roxy
Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune,
examined how temperature, rainfall, and humidity affect dengue in Pune, a major
hotspot of the disease.
They found that dengue infections and
deaths increase when temperatures go above 27 degrees Celsius, rainfall is
moderate and spread out over time and humidity is between 60 and 78 per cent
during monsoon (June–September).
The scientists created a model using
artificial intelligence and machine learning that can predict dengue outbreaks
more than two months in advance. This allows local authorities and health
departments to prepare in time and reduce the impact of the disease.
In Pune, the average temperature
ranges from 27–35 degrees Celsius during monsoon. This range is conducive for
dengue transmission because it affects how long mosquitoes live, how many eggs
they produce, and how quickly the virus develops inside them. It also
influences how long it takes for people to show symptoms after being infected.
The researchers noted this
temperature range is specific to Pune and will differ in other places because
various factors—like rainfall and humidity—vary. Therefore, it’s important to
study the climate-dengue link for each region separately.
The study shows moderate rains (up to
150 mm in a week) increase dengue deaths because they cause stagnant water that
mosquitoes use to breed. Heavy rains (more than 150 mm in a week), however,
reduce dengue by washing away eggs and larvae.
Monsoon rainfall in India has active
(wet) and break (dry) phases. Years with fewer active and break phases (meaning
rainfall is more evenly spread out) see higher dengue cases and deaths. Years
with more of these phases (meaning more rain in short bursts) see fewer dengue
cases and deaths, the scientists found.
So, it is not just the total amount
of rain that matters, but also how the rain is spread out over time. Currently,
the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues forecasts for these
active-break cycles 10–30 days in advance for the whole country. Using these
forecasts can give extra time to predict dengue outbreaks.
In the future, scientists say
temperatures and humidity in India will continue to go up, and monsoon rains
will become more erratic, with more heavy rainfall. While these heavy rains
might wash away some mosquito eggs and larvae, overall warmer days will likely
boost dengue transmission.
Under scenarios with both low and
high fossil fuel emissions, Pune could see its average temperature rise by
1.2–3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
“We were able to conduct this study
and prepare an early warning system using health data shared by Pune’s Health
Department... We approached Kerala and other states where dengue cases are
high, but health departments there did not cooperate,” said Koll.
“We have meteorological data readily
available from the IMD. If health data is shared, we can prepare customised
early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases like dengue, malaria, and
chikungunya for each city or district in India. Cooperation from health
departments is key to saving lives,” Koll said.
Several states with a high dengue
burden—such as Kerala, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu,
Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan, and Uttar
Pradesh—could benefit from an advanced early warning system. This would improve
their readiness and reduce the disease’s effects, the scientists said.
Sujata Saunik, the Chief Secretary of Maharashtra, said this collaboration highlights the importance of bringing together expertise from diverse fields to address complex climate-health challenges.
“It is a perfect example of how
scientists, the health department, and the government can work together to
improve our health warning system.”
No comments:
Post a Comment