Over half of adults, third of children to become overweight or obese globally by 2050: Lancet

A groundbreaking Lancet study reveals an alarming global obesity trend that could impact billions worldwide by 2050. Researchers predict over 60% of adults and one-third of children will be overweight or obese in the next three decades. The study highlights significant health risks, particularly in regions like North Africa, Middle East, and Latin America. Urgent policy interventions are crucial to prevent this impending health crisis.

"The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy" - Prof. Emmanuela Gakidou, IHME

A most comprehensive global analysis to date, including India, has estimated that overweight and obesity rates in adults (aged 25 or older) and children and adolescents (aged 5-24 years) more than doubled over the past three decades (1990-2021), affecting 2.11 billion adults and 493 million young people worldwide in 2021, according to a study published in The Lancet.

Key Points

1 Obesity rates to double across 8 major countries by 2050

2 Health systems facing unprecedented strain from weight-related issues

3 Children's obesity predicted to rise dramatically worldwide

Weight gain varies widely across the globe with more than half of the world's adults with overweight or obesity in 2021 living in just eight countries -- China (402 million), India (180 million), the US (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).

Without urgent policy reform and action, around 60 per cent of adults (3.8 billion) and a third (31 per cent) of all children and adolescents (746 million) are forecast to be living with either overweight or obesity by 2050, according to the major analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators, published in The Lancet.

By 2050, one in three young people with obesity (130 million) are forecast to be living in just two regions -- north Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and the Caribbean -- with deleterious health, economic, and societal consequences, the study warned.

Additionally, nearly a quarter of the world's adult population with obesity in 2050 are predicted to be aged 65 or older, intensifying the strain on already overburdened health-care systems and wreaking havoc on health services in low-resource countries.

"The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure," said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, US.

"Governments and the public health community can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies," said Gakidou.

During an address in the 119th Episode of 'Mann Ki Baat', Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed rising cases of obesity and the need to prevent it as it can lead to several diseases like hypertension, diabetes and cancer.

"To become a fit and healthy nation, we will certainly have to deal with the problem of obesity. According to a study, one in every eight people today is troubled by the problem of obesity," PM Modi emphasised.

The latest findings underscore the imperative for immediate action to prevent an unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity.

Without urgent policy reform and action, over half the world's adult population (3.8 billion) and a third of all children and adolescents (746 million) are forecast to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050 -- posing an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels.

The study predicts a substantial (121 per cent) rise in obesity among young people globally, with the total number of children and adolescents with obesity predicted to reach 360 million by 2050 (an additional 186 million from 2021). The substantial increases in obesity forecast between 2022 and 2030, underscore the urgent need for action.

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