Researchers found that airborne fungal spores, but not pollen, can predict surges in flu and Covid-19 cases. The study used machine learning models to analyze data from Puerto Rico. Early detection of fungal spore levels could help public health systems prepare for outbreaks. The findings may especially benefit vulnerable groups like the elderly and those with respiratory conditions.
June 23, 2025
Airborne fungal spores may help predict Covid, flu surge: Study
"Monitoring airborne fungal
spore levels could help predict short-term outbreaks of flu and Covid-19."
– Felix E. Rivera-Mariani
Monitoring fungal spores in the
outdoor air can predict surges in flu and Covid-19 infections, according to a
study.
Key
Points
1
Fungal spores linked to flu and Covid-19 surges
2
Study used machine learning for prediction
3
Pollen did not show similar correlation
4
Findings may aid vulnerable populations
Researchers
from Lynn University in Florida, US, discovered that airborne concentrations of
fungal spores -- but not pollen -- were strongly linked to increases in flu and
Covid-19 cases.
When airborne concentrations of
fungal spores rose, the scientists often saw a jump in infections within a few
days.
The study models were able to
predict flu and Covid-19 surges with high accuracy, particularly in the fall
season. However, pollen didn’t show the same connection or prediction.
“The findings from our study
suggest that monitoring airborne fungal spore levels could help predict
short-term outbreaks (spikes) of flu and Covid-19, giving public health systems
an early warning signal,” said Felix E. Rivera-Mariani, Associate Professor of
Biochemistry at Lynn.
“Our findings also highlight the
potential role of environmental factors -- not just person-to-person spread --
in contributing to the incidence of respiratory viral infections. That could
open new doors for targeted public health alerts, especially in areas with high
outdoor airborne fungi," Rivera-Mariani added.
In the study, the team examined
daily data from 2022 to 2024, in two major health regions in Puerto Rico—San
Juan and Caguas.
The data included the daily
incidence of people diagnosed with Covid-19 and flu, and the concentrations of
airborne fungal spores and pollen recorded on the same days.
The scientists then implemented
statistical and machine learning models to see if high levels of these
environmental exposures could predict spikes in flu and Covid-19 cases within
the same week or the following week (called lag-effect).
“The findings may help inform
environmental risk alerts, particularly for vulnerable populations like the
elderly or those with asthma and allergic rhinitis,” Rivera-Mariani said.
The study was presented at ASM
Microbe 2025 in Los Angeles, the annual meeting of the American Society for
Microbiology.
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